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Here is a screen shot from our recovery staking test bot.
The selections we are using for this test are from Stan's SAW service.
Please note: Ignore the Betfair balance as this account is used for several tests. The session P/L is showing the amount of profit made using 50p liability recovery stakes. (raised to 60p now).
Here is a screen shot from our recovery staking test bot.
The selections we are using for this test are from Stan's SAW service.
Please note: Ignore the Betfair balance as this account is used for several tests. The session P/L is showing the amount of profit made using 50p liability recovery stakes. (raised to 60p now).
See below for the stake formula I am using.
(The text from my emails show the whole story below)
P.s. “A lot of trainers to place” will come off open test at the end of March.
After a bit of a bad start (-5 points) in February, March has seen a total turn to form.
Another winner yesterday took profit up to 30.89 points for March.
You can check out the results and see the selections here.
Following on from yesterday...
Over the last couple of days we have been talking about staking systems.
Before I go into the next part I have to give some warnings.
The first is that using recovery staking is dangerous and you can lose a lot of your bank very quickly.
It is imperative that you understand what you are doing and what it will cost you should things go wrong.
Stop loss is a must. If you don’t have some kind of maximum stop loss in place then sooner or later you are going to get into trouble.
Small stakes compared to your bank size are a must.
And really understanding the “worst case scenario” is just plain common sense.
In the case of the selections I am going to talk about the average strike rate is around 51% but looking at it month by month this often runs around the 45% mark.
The strike rate calculator tells us that we could expect a losing run of 14 selections in a row.
Which would be a bit of a disaster
We would hope that a tipster supplying selections would be able to give us a chance of beating those statistics but we must keep them in mind.
At the moment the longest losing run these selections have had is 7 over the last 18 months so we could use that as a guide.
But we still want to be cautious.
More on this next time.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The next thing you need is a system that has been proven for month after month to give a consistent strike rate.
I have been showing you Stan’s 3 a day selections over at “Stop at a winner”.
Now I am the first to admit that the service as a whole has not done very well.
But the membership is still strong because Stan is reliable and has grown a niched membership based around the recovering staking idea I have been showing you.
One other way of using his selections is to actually “Stop at a winner” when using recovery staking.
Here is how that looks
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/SAWResultsBSP-liability.asp?t=8
It often means you can be in and out of the market with one selection.
If you really understand the risk then you can try Stan’s service for just £4.99.
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/
Just be careful and use a very small % of your bank.
Here is how it can look using small stakes in the GHBot.
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=117
This is set to a target profit of 50p (for testing).
We have had one stake as high as 7.69 which shows you how quickly it can build up.
But when you do get a run of winners it can build up quite quickly.
Here is the link to Stan’s site again.
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/
Did you spot the difference?.....
Yesterday I gave you a screen shot of the GHBot using liability staking with the SAW selections.
But it was slightly different staking to what we have been discussing.
The GHBot can run just about any staking plan you want with its spread sheet option but it also has a few built in.
The one I showed you yesterday was “Liability” recovery staking but with a difference.
Instead of stacking up all your losses and trying to recover them…
…In this case it just increases your target profit by your original.
Here is how that works…
Original stake 2.00
We lose next stake 4.00
We lose next stake 6.00
We lose next stake 8.00
It still divides our new stake by the odds but this way we are controlling our stake.
The downside to this idea is that we won’t always recover what we lost especially when the odds are lower than 1/1 (Evens).
But it may not send you quite so “grey” so quickly either!
I have updated the screen shot to bring you more up-to-date.
Crazy staking stake goes up a notch.
Remember a few emails back I showed you that crazy staking idea using Stan’s “Stop at a winner” selections?
This is where we ended up using liability recovery staking using the GHBot.
Well a couple of days ago we went past the £10 profit (using 50p liability stakes) mark.
So I have now increased the liability to 60p.
The formula I am using is when we make 20 x our stake in profit we then increase our stake by 1% of that profit.
We won £10…So 1% of those winnings is 10p, so our stake increased to 60p.
20 x 60p is £12 which is our next target.
If we reach that our next increase will be 12p (1% of £12).
Yeah I know it’s not that exciting maybe even over cautious.
But that’s the key to success with recovery staking.
Caution and patience.
I will keep updating the screen shots every few days.
(The text from my emails show the whole story below)
Ouch 5 losers put us back a bit but I kept the stake the same.
We are now back over the £10 mark.
(Note: After getting to £10 profit we upped liability to 0.60p at the start of the 8th April.)
A Crazy Staking Plan…(22/03/2016)
Have you ever used a staking plan to try and increase profit?
If so you have probably also discovered how quickly they can get out of hand and start costing you money.
There are generally two types of staking plans.
Recovery and Growth (you can combine them).
Recovery is where you take all or a portion of your losses and attempt to win them back on your next bet.
The one that normally hurts the most is when you put all your losses on the next horse and lose again…ouch!
Growth is where after a win or after your bank has increased you increase your stake.
One used by a lot of people is to tie your stake directly into the value of your bank.
So you could take your current bank and use 1% as your stake.
If you’re bank increases then your stake increases and if your bank drops your stake drops.
Over the next few emails I am going to show you a staking plan I have been using with a system that has 3 selections a day,
It’s based around what I call “liability recovery staking”.
This is where you have a set profit target and divide the available odds by that target.
But I want to be clear…
It can get quite hairy very quickly if you aren’t careful, especially when your selections have low odds…
…Because you can be staking far more than you are going to win back.
An example…
I want to get back £10.00 if I win.
The odds are 1.5 or Betfair.
Drop the 1 and then divide 10/0.5 = £20 stake.
Yep you’re staking double the return you want.
Crazy?
Maybe…
Until next time...
Until then don’t forget to check out Racing Selection where you find plenty of systems.
Here are the details.
http://racing-selections.co.uk/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If so you have probably also discovered how quickly they can get out of hand and start costing you money.
There are generally two types of staking plans.
Recovery and Growth (you can combine them).
Recovery is where you take all or a portion of your losses and attempt to win them back on your next bet.
The one that normally hurts the most is when you put all your losses on the next horse and lose again…ouch!
Growth is where after a win or after your bank has increased you increase your stake.
One used by a lot of people is to tie your stake directly into the value of your bank.
So you could take your current bank and use 1% as your stake.
If you’re bank increases then your stake increases and if your bank drops your stake drops.
Over the next few emails I am going to show you a staking plan I have been using with a system that has 3 selections a day,
It’s based around what I call “liability recovery staking”.
This is where you have a set profit target and divide the available odds by that target.
But I want to be clear…
It can get quite hairy very quickly if you aren’t careful, especially when your selections have low odds…
…Because you can be staking far more than you are going to win back.
An example…
I want to get back £10.00 if I win.
The odds are 1.5 or Betfair.
Drop the 1 and then divide 10/0.5 = £20 stake.
Yep you’re staking double the return you want.
Crazy?
Maybe…
Until next time...
Until then don’t forget to check out Racing Selection where you find plenty of systems.
Here are the details.
http://racing-selections.co.uk/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P.s. “A lot of trainers to place” will come off open test at the end of March.
A Crazy Staking Plan…Part Deux (23/03/2016)
Following on from yesterday…
“A staking system will not make an unprofitable system profitable”
This is an interesting statement and although I agree with it…
…It’s not exactly true.
But what is…Is that to make an “unprofitable” system profitable will need a big bank and small stakes.
Let me show you an example.
This is a 3 day system at standard 1 point staking.
As you can see it is not exactly profitable at the moment although since it launched it has been.
Now look at it again here.
See what I mean.
Now of course it is not as simple as it seems and there are some really difficult times to get to that profit.
And in fact I would probably half the profit shown to be more sensible.
Anyway for now just have a look and in the next email I will go into more detail.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
“A staking system will not make an unprofitable system profitable”
This is an interesting statement and although I agree with it…
…It’s not exactly true.
But what is…Is that to make an “unprofitable” system profitable will need a big bank and small stakes.
Let me show you an example.
This is a 3 day system at standard 1 point staking.
As you can see it is not exactly profitable at the moment although since it launched it has been.
Now look at it again here.
See what I mean.
Now of course it is not as simple as it seems and there are some really difficult times to get to that profit.
And in fact I would probably half the profit shown to be more sensible.
Anyway for now just have a look and in the next email I will go into more detail.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A crazy staking plan…Part 3 and 30 points mini system
I wanted to check you had been keeping an eye on the “Mini System” that are on trial at the moment.After a bit of a bad start (-5 points) in February, March has seen a total turn to form.
Another winner yesterday took profit up to 30.89 points for March.
You can check out the results and see the selections here.
Following on from yesterday...
Over the last couple of days we have been talking about staking systems.
Before I go into the next part I have to give some warnings.
The first is that using recovery staking is dangerous and you can lose a lot of your bank very quickly.
It is imperative that you understand what you are doing and what it will cost you should things go wrong.
Stop loss is a must. If you don’t have some kind of maximum stop loss in place then sooner or later you are going to get into trouble.
Small stakes compared to your bank size are a must.
And really understanding the “worst case scenario” is just plain common sense.
In the case of the selections I am going to talk about the average strike rate is around 51% but looking at it month by month this often runs around the 45% mark.
The strike rate calculator tells us that we could expect a losing run of 14 selections in a row.
Which would be a bit of a disaster
We would hope that a tipster supplying selections would be able to give us a chance of beating those statistics but we must keep them in mind.
At the moment the longest losing run these selections have had is 7 over the last 18 months so we could use that as a guide.
But we still want to be cautious.
More on this next time.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A crazy staking plan…Part 4
Carrying on the crazy staking theme…
Target profit staking is a system you could use if you wanted to try and reduce your risk while trying to hit your target.
Here is how it works…
Let’s say we want to win £10 and the price of your selection is 2/1.
10 / 2 = £5
So we stake £5 so that if we win at 2/1 we get £10 back (Yeah I know you knew that).
If we lose we have only lost £5 not £10.
But let’s say we do lose.
We still want to win £10 but we also want to get the £5 back we have already lost.
And let’s say again that the price of the bet was 2/1.
£15 / 2 = £7.50
This time we have to stake £7.50 to get back the original loss of £15
If we lose again and find a horse at the same odds the calculation is…
(£5 + £7.50 + £10 ) 22.50 / 2 = £11.25
Now don’t get me wrong this may seem quite straight forwarded and even a good idea but it can still wipe out a bank in 8 or 9 losses if your stakes are too high compared to your bank.
It’s even worse when the odds are lower or below evens.
To give you an idea of how much it could cost you I have put together a results page allowing you to change the stake and bank.
The results are from the system I have been talking about over the last week.
Here is the link.
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/SAW-liability-ns.asp
Make sure you check out the losing runs and how big your stakes can become.
More on this next time.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Carrying on the crazy staking theme…
Target profit staking is a system you could use if you wanted to try and reduce your risk while trying to hit your target.
Here is how it works…
Let’s say we want to win £10 and the price of your selection is 2/1.
10 / 2 = £5
So we stake £5 so that if we win at 2/1 we get £10 back (Yeah I know you knew that).
If we lose we have only lost £5 not £10.
But let’s say we do lose.
We still want to win £10 but we also want to get the £5 back we have already lost.
And let’s say again that the price of the bet was 2/1.
£15 / 2 = £7.50
This time we have to stake £7.50 to get back the original loss of £15
If we lose again and find a horse at the same odds the calculation is…
(£5 + £7.50 + £10 ) 22.50 / 2 = £11.25
Now don’t get me wrong this may seem quite straight forwarded and even a good idea but it can still wipe out a bank in 8 or 9 losses if your stakes are too high compared to your bank.
It’s even worse when the odds are lower or below evens.
To give you an idea of how much it could cost you I have put together a results page allowing you to change the stake and bank.
The results are from the system I have been talking about over the last week.
Here is the link.
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/SAW-liability-ns.asp
Make sure you check out the losing runs and how big your stakes can become.
More on this next time.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A crazy staking plan…Part 5
As I have already mentioned if you are going to use any kind of staking especially recovery you better make dam sure you understand the risk.The next thing you need is a system that has been proven for month after month to give a consistent strike rate.
I have been showing you Stan’s 3 a day selections over at “Stop at a winner”.
Now I am the first to admit that the service as a whole has not done very well.
But the membership is still strong because Stan is reliable and has grown a niched membership based around the recovering staking idea I have been showing you.
One other way of using his selections is to actually “Stop at a winner” when using recovery staking.
Here is how that looks
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/SAWResultsBSP-liability.asp?t=8
It often means you can be in and out of the market with one selection.
If you really understand the risk then you can try Stan’s service for just £4.99.
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/
Just be careful and use a very small % of your bank.
Here is how it can look using small stakes in the GHBot.
http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=117
This is set to a target profit of 50p (for testing).
We have had one stake as high as 7.69 which shows you how quickly it can build up.
But when you do get a run of winners it can build up quite quickly.
Here is the link to Stan’s site again.
http://stopatawinner.co.uk/
---------------------------------------------------------------
A crazy staking plan…Part 6
Yesterday I gave you a screen shot of the GHBot using liability staking with the SAW selections.
But it was slightly different staking to what we have been discussing.
The GHBot can run just about any staking plan you want with its spread sheet option but it also has a few built in.
The one I showed you yesterday was “Liability” recovery staking but with a difference.
Instead of stacking up all your losses and trying to recover them…
…In this case it just increases your target profit by your original.
Here is how that works…
Original stake 2.00
We lose next stake 4.00
We lose next stake 6.00
We lose next stake 8.00
It still divides our new stake by the odds but this way we are controlling our stake.
The downside to this idea is that we won’t always recover what we lost especially when the odds are lower than 1/1 (Evens).
But it may not send you quite so “grey” so quickly either!
I have updated the screen shot to bring you more up-to-date.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Crazy Staking revisited…(part 7)
Remember a few emails back I showed you that crazy staking idea using Stan’s “Stop at a winner” selections?
This is where we ended up using liability recovery staking using the GHBot.
Well a couple of days ago we went past the £10 profit (using 50p liability stakes) mark.
So I have now increased the liability to 60p.
The formula I am using is when we make 20 x our stake in profit we then increase our stake by 1% of that profit.
We won £10…So 1% of those winnings is 10p, so our stake increased to 60p.
20 x 60p is £12 which is our next target.
If we reach that our next increase will be 12p (1% of £12).
Yeah I know it’s not that exciting maybe even over cautious.
But that’s the key to success with recovery staking.
Caution and patience.
I will keep updating the screen shots every few days.