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In this article I want to show why it being on the third favourite in some races may be the best option and how you can set this up using the Grey Horse Bot to automatically choose the right race to be on.

Generally odds on Betfair are pretty accurate and do represent a horses chance of winning a race and we can use that information to point us in the right direction when looking for a possible lay bet.

If we take a look at some prices from a real race and turn those into percentages you can see what I mean…

Horse	Odds	% chance
Geneva Geyser	1.78	56.18
Carabinier	3.90	25.64
Another Kate	10.00	10.00
Mercury Bay	19.00	5.26
Failed The Test	55.00	1.82
Grindy	40.00	2.50
Mezarat	50.00	2.00
Comrade Bob	60.00	1.67
Trepalo	210.00	0.48
Total		105.54

(To find the percentage chance of a horse winning just divide 100 by the decimal odds.)

From the above table we can see that the favourite has 56.18% chance of winning and the second favourite has a 25.64% of winning, so between them they have an 81.82% chance of winning the race.

Now of course there is a little extra built into the market to pay for Betfairs commission but we are not far out and the rest of the field, use up the rest of the odds.

So what good is this to us?

Well from a lay point of view we want our horse to have a very low chance of winning but without paying too much for it and so we should be looking at only laying horse with around 10% to 20% chance of winning which will probably be somewhere between 5 and 10 although we will probably have to pay a little more on the lay side.

The scenario I am about to start testing is to try to lay the 3rd favourite as long as the first favourite is 2.00 or below and the maximum price I want to pay is 11.00 10.00.

This means that the favourite has at least an evens shot at winning and it is likely that the second favourite is in the 20% to 30% range, making the top two in the betting having a combined chance of winning the race of around 70 to 80%.

Setting this up with the Grey Horse Bot.

Put the bot into Auto-Mode and on the option screen where it has the runners listed as 1st,2nd,3rd etc…Tick the “Shdw” (see shadow betting ) box only (not the “bet” tick box) and then click on default.

This will open a new box. Tick “Use custom range” and then add Low Odds 1.02 and High Odds 2.00 click ok.

Now tick the “Bet” on the 3rd runner and set your normal odds range from 5 to 11.00.(Please note this is now been changed to 10.00)

Now just load in all the main market races for the day and click start.

Of course you should paper test this idea for a while and see what happens and I will let you know how my Grey Horse Bot does over the next few weeks.

Thanks for reading.

Malcolm
P.S. Prefer to pay just once for the Grey Horse Bot?
Click Here to find out how much.

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