Hi
Over the last few days I have added 3 new systems to the members area so today I just wanted to talk quickly about the results and how you can find what I like to call the “Optimum Profit Strategy” (OPS).
OPS, isn’t just about getting the most profit that you can from a system it can also mean the finding a strategy for steady profit.
So in some cases where a system has swings from very profitable days to bad losing days by looking at its OPS we may be able to smooth this out a little (or a lot) even if overall it means less profit.
The normal way of achieving the best OPS is by cutting down the number of selections that the system gets by looking at the prices of the selections.
Now before we go on there are a couple of things I should explain.
Betting within certain price ranges can cause issues and is not always easy to do, especially when monitoring prices manually.
Also if we are betting on the exchanges (as I normally do) then you have to accept that you may get a price lower (in the case of a lay bet) or higher (in the case of a back bet) because the remit of the exchanges is to match your bet at the best price possible.
If they didn’t do this then the prices wouldn’t be able to move as they do.
So depending on the type of system (back or lay) you have to accept that you can end up with some selections that you were not expecting to get.
One of the bonuses I put in the members area was MR2 (bonus 27) you can get the latest spread sheet here
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/mr2.xls
At the top you will see that you can change the price range between the minimum and maximum.
So if we start off at 1 to 100 you can see that we made a profit of just over 60pts in the first 5 days.
But we had one day where we lost 14pts and the next day we only made 4pts back and these are two good days to concentrate on because we want to decrease the losses and make some more profit.
Basically even though we had wins of 18.5, 34, 20 and 13.5 as well as many others we also had to take quite a few losers.
So first of all we should consider getting rid of the really high priced selections.
Yes we could win on one of them someday. But the odds are low of that happening so it makes sense to cut them in order to find out OPS.
So let us take the top limit down to 40.
As you can see 7 that actually improved our profit by a couple of points but if you take the odds down to 30 you will see our profit nearly halves and it doesn’t make much of a difference to our losing day.
If you take the max odds back up to 35 then profit is back to 63pts and even if you take the price up to 50 it doesn’t make a lot of difference to the overall profit.
This means that if we use 35 to 40 as our upper limit even if the exchanges do match us slightly higher then that, it shouldn’t matter.
Now many of the losers on this system come from the lower price range so we need to do some work here.
We need to put a little bit of thought into this because again of the way the exchanges work.
If we find we get the most amount of profit from not going under a price of 7.0 (which is pretty close to the mark) and the runner we want to back has a price is moving down, then we could be in danger of missing the selection.
The exchanges will give you a better price but they will not match a worse price so if you put your bet in at 7.00 but the price drops to 6.95 you won’t get matched unless the price comes back in.
The Grey Horse Bot has “widen odds” which will put a slightly lower priced bet (in the case of backs) so that you have a better chance of being matched.
But of course that means you could get matched below your lower odds limit of 7.00.
It’s just something you may have to live with.
As long as we can still get a good OPS even when some prices are under your best minimum then it should not really be a big problem.
So going back to the spread sheet put a lower price of 4 in the box and you will see the profit has now gone up to nearly 70pts.
But also our losing day has gone down to 11pts and our profit the next day is at 8pts.
If you change the price to 6 then the two days have now cancelled each other out and if you take it up to 7 (told you) then the losing day goes to 6pts and the next day goes up to nearly 9pts!
If you take it up to 8.00 then the loss is down to 4pts but the next days profit is up at nearly 12pts.
Taking the price up to 9 doesn’t make much difference except to lower our overall profit to under 70pts where it was nearly 80pts at 8.00.
So our OPS for this system (at the moment) appears to be between 6.00 to 8.00 and 35 to 50.
So this means we can now set up Grey Horse Bot to back between 8 and 35 but if we use “widen odds” and set it to around 10 then we should pick up any selections when the price may be going down.
In the next part of this article I will discuss the selections from the lay system and how you can get to your OPS.
Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/
P.S. The back system is bonus 27 and the lay system is bonus 28.
