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Hi
In the last article I wrote about finding your Optimum Profit Strategy (OPS) I used Bonus 27 (MR2) to demonstrate how we could improve a system to be more stable and maybe even more profitable.
You can view the first article here.
Is this second part I want to use bonus 28 which is a Lay system.
Click here to get the results.
Unlike the MR2 system the lay selections are already capped to 12 although again we are using “widen odds” so we do pick up the odd runner at 12.5.
Now you could argue to find your OPS you should check all results no matter what the price and although it is a good argument there are too many risks associated with lay betting and sometimes you just have to be cautious and go with what seems right.
Of course if the risk doesn’t bother you then you can choose whichever price range you like but for me 12 to 13 is fine!
On the day I am writing this article (20/04/2012) we have only had two losing days. One wasn’t that bad where we lost 2pts for the day but the next was nearly 7pts which hurts more, although it did come after a winning day of 11pts!
So as per the back system we will see if we can iron out the swings we are experiencing with the P/L (profit and loss).
First of all lets drop the Max odds from 13 down to 10 where it reduces the profit by quite a bit but does make everything a little more even by reducing both losing days which is what we are looking for.
Let’s start increasing the Min Odds.
2.00 improves the profit slightly. 3 makes it worse!
4.00 reduces the profit but has also reduced the losing days further.
5.00 has made this really interesting because it has got rid of one losing day and turned it in to a profitable day and the other losing day is just 2.5 pts.
6.00 has hit the sweet spot and increased the profit again but more importantly got rid of both of the losing days.
7.00 is even better again and looks like it could be the best.
Yep 8.00 reduces the profit again and brings back the losing days.
So if we take Min odds back down to 7.00 and then just increase Max odds from 10 to 11, 12 and then 13 we can see what happens.
11 actually reduces the profit and brings back in one of the losing days.
12.00 increases profit and gets rid on the losing day again.
And 13 improves things a little more which is good to see.
So our OPS appears to be from 7.00 to 13.
Now as explained in the first part of this article the exchanges job is to match you at the best price possible so if you put a bet into the market at 7.00 you may get matched at 6.00 or even lower.
And as I have already mentioned if you use “Widen odds” on a maximum odds of 12 then you wont miss the top end selections.
Although we would prefer to get matched between 7.00 and 12.00 the odd selection that comes in lower or higher shouldn’t hurt the P/L to much.
Finally…
The best strategy (if you could afford it) would be to continue monitoring all the selections with very small stakes while putting your main stakes on the OPS price range which will allow you keep monitoring to see if any changes are needed.
The Grey Horse Bot allows you to record all your selections and prices and outputs them to a .csv file which you can then analyze in a spread sheet.
Next we will look at your staking OPS.
Click here for part 3
Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk
Hi
In the last article I wrote about finding your Optimum Profit Strategy (OPS) I used Bonus 27 (MR2) to demonstrate how we could improve a system to be more stable and maybe even more profitable.
You can view the first article here.
Is this second part I want to use bonus 28 which is a Lay system.
Click here to get the results.
Unlike the MR2 system the lay selections are already capped to 12 although again we are using “widen odds” so we do pick up the odd runner at 12.5.
Now you could argue to find your OPS you should check all results no matter what the price and although it is a good argument there are too many risks associated with lay betting and sometimes you just have to be cautious and go with what seems right.
Of course if the risk doesn’t bother you then you can choose whichever price range you like but for me 12 to 13 is fine!
On the day I am writing this article (20/04/2012) we have only had two losing days. One wasn’t that bad where we lost 2pts for the day but the next was nearly 7pts which hurts more, although it did come after a winning day of 11pts!
So as per the back system we will see if we can iron out the swings we are experiencing with the P/L (profit and loss).
First of all lets drop the Max odds from 13 down to 10 where it reduces the profit by quite a bit but does make everything a little more even by reducing both losing days which is what we are looking for.
Let’s start increasing the Min Odds.
2.00 improves the profit slightly. 3 makes it worse!
4.00 reduces the profit but has also reduced the losing days further.
5.00 has made this really interesting because it has got rid of one losing day and turned it in to a profitable day and the other losing day is just 2.5 pts.
6.00 has hit the sweet spot and increased the profit again but more importantly got rid of both of the losing days.
7.00 is even better again and looks like it could be the best.
Yep 8.00 reduces the profit again and brings back the losing days.
So if we take Min odds back down to 7.00 and then just increase Max odds from 10 to 11, 12 and then 13 we can see what happens.
11 actually reduces the profit and brings back in one of the losing days.
12.00 increases profit and gets rid on the losing day again.
And 13 improves things a little more which is good to see.
So our OPS appears to be from 7.00 to 13.
Now as explained in the first part of this article the exchanges job is to match you at the best price possible so if you put a bet into the market at 7.00 you may get matched at 6.00 or even lower.
And as I have already mentioned if you use “Widen odds” on a maximum odds of 12 then you wont miss the top end selections.
Although we would prefer to get matched between 7.00 and 12.00 the odd selection that comes in lower or higher shouldn’t hurt the P/L to much.
Finally…
The best strategy (if you could afford it) would be to continue monitoring all the selections with very small stakes while putting your main stakes on the OPS price range which will allow you keep monitoring to see if any changes are needed.
The Grey Horse Bot allows you to record all your selections and prices and outputs them to a .csv file which you can then analyze in a spread sheet.
Next we will look at your staking OPS.
Click here for part 3
Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk