In this article I am going to show you how you can make an extra £996.32 profit by simply changing the way you stake (NOT recovery staking).
In the last two articles (part 1 and Part 2) I talked about finding your Optimum Profit Strategy (OPS) by looking at the price range of the selections that we use.
There is another way we can find our OPS and this is by looking at our staking strategy.
No I don’t mean recovery staking (although that could be an option) what I am talking about here is how we work out what stake to put on each selection.
There are 3 main ways you can do this.
- Fixed stake (the stake stays the same)
- % of bank (The stake changes based on a fixed % of your current bank)
- Fixed Liability (Normally used for lay betting as you can limit your losses)
In the MR2 spreadsheet I originally showed the results as fixed stake.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/mrs.xls
This simply means that you put the same amount on each race until you decide to increase or decrease it manually.
Grey Horse Bot (and GHBLite) have several options that allow you to choose how your stake is worked out on each race. Even to the extent of choosing different stake for different odds ranges.
But in this article I want to look at staking as a percentage of your bank.
This is quite easy to work out. You just take your bank size as it currently is and then multiply it by the % figure you choose.
Again the bots make this simple but here is the calculation based on a £500 bank.
500 x 1% (you can find the % sign on any calculator) = £5.00
So our stake is £5.00
Now you can decide to only do this when your bank actually grows (or diminishes) by a certain amount but my favourite way of doing it is before each race so my stake will increase or decrease based on my current bank.
Let us see how this works.
If you download the latest spread sheet from MR2
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/mr2.xls
You will see that I have added a new section in columns J, K and L to handle this calculation.
There are a couple of things you should think about before attempting this kind of betting.
You must choose a liability figure that will allow you to cover losses.
2. Using this idea for backing is one thing but laying needs to be thought about a lot which I will cover it in the next part of this article.
So we can get a good idea of how this works let us change the odds range (in yellow) to min odds of 1.00 and Max odds of 100.
Change the bank to £500 and stake to £5 and then change the % (in the pastel green area) to 1%.
This means both staking ideas are starting at the same value of £5.00
Yep I know Friday (20/04/2012) was not great even after an 18.5 winner but I will cover that shortly.
If we scroll down to the bottom we will see that using 1% of your current bank on each selection gave us £164 more profit.
1% (or £5) allows us 100 losers before our bank runs out. So we can probably increase the risk a little to 2% maybe even a little higher.
But 2% would give you a pretty good return (future results being as good).
Anyway put your stake up to £10 and put the % to 2% and now let us look at our OPS using our preferred odds range on this system of 7 to 40.
Friday now doesn’t seem as bad!
But look at the difference in profit.
Odds 1 to 100
£10 per stake £1103.93
2% of bank £1760.75
Difference £656.82
Odds 7 to 40 (OPS)
£10 per stake £1354.90
2% of bank £2351.22
Difference £996.32!
Why does it make such a difference?
It simply that you are staking more whenever your bank increases and although after each loser your stake will decrease you will need to lose all your profit before you hit your original stake.
The beauty is that the risk stays the same.
Even if you start by losing (which we did) as soon as you get some winners and your bank increases you will catch up and if the winners keep coming then of course you should make more.
In truth if you were using fixed stakes then you would probably increase the size naturally whenever your bank increased by a certain amount. So the actual differences seen here would probably not be so great.
I think it works very well with MR2 because of the amount of high priced winners it gets.
It does help with MR1 but no where near as much.
In the next part we will look at the same idea but with my lay system instead which won 7pts overall on Friday or 5pts using our OPS price range of 7.00 to 12.00.
Thank you for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/
