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If you have been following the selections or results from “How
to double your bank in 90 days or less…” you will have
noticed that we are doing far better or Lay(system2) than 1.
OK, they are the same selections we are just using a different
price range which is the reason for this email.
You may have seen my video on how I created a “One a Day”
lay-system.
Well when looking at the results from lay(system2) I was a little
intrigued at how it had performed in the 1.02 to 1.99 price
range.
In fact I was so intrigued I decided to set up a new test.
Of course you never know what can happen in the future but here
is the story so far…
From the spreadsheet there have been 222 selections since we
started the test and only 14 have fallen within the 1.02 to 1.99
range.
About one every other day…
Using a 10 point liability stake we have seen a return of 92
points or using a 1 point fixed stake we have seen a return of
2.42 points.
Why the difference?
Well here is where it gets interesting…
A 10 point fixed stake may lose you less than a 10 point
liability stake but it also gives you less winnings.
Let us look at two examples…
Say we laid at 1.50 (minus Betfair’s 1 means our liability is
0.5).
If we stake £10 and win we make back 9.50 (£10 minus
Betfair’s commission) if we lose we only have to pay out £5.00
(10/0.5=5).
If we stake to £10 liability and win we get back (£10/0.5 =
£20 *5%) £19.
This is because although we staked £20, our liability was only
ever £10. When the odds are low we are staking more to stick
with our maximum £10 liability.
Which is the beauty of staking to liability at low odds.
But unlike fixed stake if we lose then we lose the whole £10.
Fixed liability doesn’t always work especially for higher
priced lays as you can see the difficulty we are having with lay
(system 1).
But it can work for lower priced lays as in this case where one
win can make up for several losses.
We have only won on 7 out of the 14 selections at the moment (50%
strike rate) but that was enough to give us 92 points profit from
10 point liability lays.
So today I have started a new test to see if I can mimic the
results we are getting by setting up a new Grey Horse Bot to
trade only between 1.02 and 1.99.
I haven’t used “widen odds” or anything like that because
the profit actually improves with the lower odds range in fact at
1.5 profit it goes up to 112 points.
But we haven’t got enough results to really know what the long
term effect is of the different price ranges so 1.02 to 1.99 is a
good place to start.
I suppose my only worry with this idea is how many losers we have
to endure before a winner.
Using a 10% liability means we can only stand 10 losers in a row
and I suspect that could be quite challenging.
It would certainly be more prudent to use a lower liability like
5 points of a 100 point bank.
That would have still be the equivalent of 46 points profit for
the month which isn’t a bad return.
I will keep you informed to how it goes but remember if you are a
Grey Horse Bot member then you can get the selections from the
member’s area.
Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
P.S. I will be showing the 10 people who take me up on my “Lay
Bet a Day” offer exactly how I created this system.