Take your pick is the star of the week (read on). |
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Welcome to the new Grey Horse Bot (and GHBlite) New "Weekender".
I am a little excited because I am hosting the first webinar I have done in a while to my LBD data package people.
We are going to talk about the first results sheet and some other testing we have been doing.
Apart from that, this weekend should be about house maintenance and clearing the garden up but then again it may just be a few walks and a bit of work.
So what’s been happening this week.
Well to be trueful it’s been one of “those weeks”.
My Cheltenham lay tips were pretty dismal.
Although they were not really tips they were based on just laying any of the favourites under 2.00
I lost 3 selections out of 3 but I had a lot of feed back from readers which was nice
It was actually surprising the number of emails I received where readers were trying similar experiments but most were using further analysis to decide whether to go for it or not.
I finished 15 points down but there are plenty more “Big Shows” throughout the year I can try.
What’s been happening this week…
“How to double your bank in 90 days…”
(You can read the latest report here)
And download the latest spread sheet here:
I have to repeat what I said last week and that is that since originally doubling our bank we have not done very well.
The back system has had a losing streak of over 28 selections which although can happen with this system, I would have preferred it if it hadn’t of happened just now.
Lay(system 2) has not done anything and it is only the difference between getting 1 loser every 5.17 selections (average) before and now getting 1 loser every 4.6.
The average losing odds are just 4.45 which could be why we are not losing as badly as we could have for the results over the last 10 days.
At the beginning of the test I was a little concerned about this price range and the number of losers we were getting because we lost 40 points from almost the start, but it then recovered really well, so I am hoping it will again.
Unfortunately this does mean we have now gone backwards and haven’t doubled our bank.
The place system has had very few matched selections but is close to getting back into profit (famous last words).
We have been experimenting with quite a few place systems and I am shortly going to introduce a new one which I am hoping will go a bit better.
We are only about 33 days into the test so it is still quite early to tell what’s going to happen but I will be the first to admit I was expecting it to have gone a little better than it has.
I probably should know better than starting a test near the end of the season.
Thought for this week...
Many paint by number systems systems like David's (Take your pick) use rules that are looking at horse racing general.
So you may see a rule like...
"Only select a runner if it came 4th or better Last Time Out.."
When you have a meeting like Cheltenham with so many top grade horses then probably every horse has come 4th or better LTO.
Should we discard the whole meeting?
Is it better not to include big meetings when using a system like "Take Your Pick"?
What do you think?
Bonus Updates.
“Two to Tango” (bonus 15) (Read about it here)
We have not had a good start to this test.
I must admit I feel a little sorry for Mark because he has worked hard on these selections but as I always say…
“Live testing in front of an audience is the only way to test…”
We obviously can not judge the system after a few days and we also had to make a decision on the NR rule which actually did affect the results.
Anyway now that’s all sorted hopefully next week we will see the system turn around.
Especially now Cheltenham is out of the way :)
Take Your Pick (Ace Naps bonus 12)
Read the latest report here:
These selections took another step forward this week after another winner at 6/1 (6.8 on betfair).
Keeping above 2.00 meant we did miss some winners but ROI is now up to an incredible 71.98% and 57.58 points profit.
It’s quite interesting to see that using all selections is improving as the system goes through better times and ROI is now up to a pretty amazing 31.61% and 51.84 points profit.
I have been mentioning that the lay selections are best between 5 or 6 and 11. And this continues to be the sweet point with a plus 90% strike rate.
But if you wanted to make life easier you could instead use 1.02 to 11. Only 18 points profit but a ROI of 31.72% meaning your getting a good return on your investment.
You can download the results file here.
Well that’s all there is from me this week.
I hope you like this "Weekender" idea but let me know if you want me to add or change anything.
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| Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm
P.S. Just a couple of Life-Time offers left Click Here to read more
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