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New open Bonus...Laying to Liability selections
I always launch a new system trial with a little bit of a worry now days.
It seems I am going through a bit of a bad patch as far as my success rate is concerned.
Even when it isn't my own system (Two to Tango comes to mind) it just doesn't go as I was expecting.
But I suppose that is what these trials are all about….seeing what happens in the real world.
The system I am about to tell you about is about 3 months old to me, although the tipster does tell me that the selections are the result of over 2 years of “tweaking”.
I was planning on giving them to you earlier but to be honest that “To good to be true” thing was nagging at me.
Mainly because the first month there were no losers at all and it wasn't until halfway through the second month the first one showed it’s ugly head.
Although I must admit I felt better then because we all know we do get losers.
But then I thought “Let’s see how many losers we get”.
Maybe we are going down hill from now on :)
Here is how it looks at the moment.
In March there were no losers.
April we saw 1 loser.
May we had 3 losers.
I am hoping that this is not just going to get worse as we go along.
June is the 4 month for me receiving the selections and I have now set up a bot to live test the selections.
Let me fill you in on the system details and how the tipster believes you should use them.
The idea is to take any price….
…But of course in order to do that we have to lay to "liability" rather than a fixed stake.
That just means that you have to take the price available on Betfair, then minus 1 from it and then divide your stake by that number.
Liability / Betfair price -1
First of all think about your liability.
You are trying to figure out the most you are prepared to lose on any single selection.
I would always start as low as 1% of your bank, even less when testing a system.
Then with confidence and more data you could increase it.
With the Grey Horse Bot you can go under the minimum £2 stake which means you can test to a maximum liability of say £1.00 (lowest we would recommend).
Or just use “Paper Trading” mode to see what happens.
If you had a £1000 bank and you picked 1% then your maximum liability would be £10
You take this maximum liability figure and then divide it by betfairs odds minus 1
£10 / 4 ( 5 -1) =2.5… 5 is the stake.
If the horse won the race you would lose £10 but if it lost the race you would win £2.50 minus Betfair’s commission.
By using liability our risk is always the same but our profit will change depending on the price available.
It does mean when the prices are high our profit will be very low.
But sometimes when the prices are low we earn a nice bit of profit.
To be very honest with you though, this is only going to work if we continue to have pretty high win rate.
If we start losing too often then we will never make up the losses.
Normally these bonuses are kept with the Grey Horse Bot community but on this occasion I am going to open the trial to non members as well.
Grey Horse Bot members and GHB lite members there is a new bonus link available for you in the member’s area.
Otherwise if you want to follow them but you are not a member of Grey Horse Bot or GHBlite then you can pick them up daily here.
Fingers Crossed
Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.
Malcolm.
P.S. In my next report I will go into the results a bit more and tell you a little more about the tipster.